November 27, 2022

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Global tension: What to expect after the annexation of four Ukrainian territories to the Russian Federation?

As the Russian government announced the day before, today, Friday, September 30, President Vladimir Putin Formalized the annexation of Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson Y Zaporizhia to the territory Russia.

“Today we signed an agreement on the integration of these regions” The Russian Federation declared Putin In his speech before the signing of the above agreements before the members of the government, representatives, senators and other representatives of the Russian government.

It’s worth noting that last Tuesday was the center day of the referendum held by pro-Russian authorities in those four Ukrainian regions. According to him Kremlin, Between 87% and 99% of citizens in those areas supported their annexation Russia.

However, these elections have been widely questioned by the West Ukraine for considering them “illegal” and “a travesty”. Today, the President of the European Commission, Ursula van der LeyenHe noted Twitter 4 territories are “Ukrainian lands” and always will be.

“Illegal connection reported Putin It doesn’t change anything. “All territories illegally occupied by Russian aggressors are Ukrainian lands and will always be part of this sovereign nation,” he said.

With this panorama of new tensions after the merger of the above four territories Russia, how will this affect the world map? What steps can Ukraine and the West take to confront this reality?

RPP news Talked to the diplomat about it Eduardo Ponce DeVincoProfessor and International Researcher Farid Kahad and journalist and analyst Ramiro Escobar.

Eduardo Ponce de Vivanco: “It will have consequences in all situations of world politics”

Eduardo Ponce DeVinco, Diplomat and former Vice Chancellor of the RepublicConsidering the “illegality” of the popular consultation carried out in 4 regions, the new measures announced by the Russian government were considered to have “global consequences”. Ukraine.

“The polls conducted in those areas are a farce. (In a poll), the ballot boxes are transparent and the votes must be seen. It’s a farce. They wanted to legally cover something that was obviously arbitrary,” he said. Bones.

Similarly, he assumed there would be domestic consequences Russiaevoking an atmosphere of civil unrest derived from the war in that country Ukraine.

“I don’t know what else you can do Putin in connection with Ukraine Because what you implement already has serious consequences for the organization itself. Russia. Russian citizens who can be recruited into the armed forces. And those outside the country are called in to assimilate as they leave,” he opined.

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In this sense, Ponce pointed out, the Russian people who oppose the war “suffer from so-called conscription.” Putin To create a reserve force of armed forces”.

“Those citizens are going to be victims of arbitrary and insanity Putinescape from Russia“, he noted.

What can the international community do?

For Ponce, one possible way out of the crisis may come from the General Assembly United Nations Organization (UN).

“I think it is him, through the General Assembly, not the Security Council, would intervene based on the “Union for Peace” resolution used for the Korean War and whose Security Council could not lift a finger due to the Soviet Union’s veto at the time. . Currently, even the Security Council cannot lift a finger over Russia’s veto. So the way to deal with this situation is to go back to the General Assembly and use a precise precedent, this “Union for Peace” resolution that allowed the US and its Western allies to intervene against a Chinese invasion of Korea. Peninsula,” he explained.

In turn, he said, the only “possible favorable prognosis” is to leave Putin of the Russian Government” or a complete reversal of its policy Ukraine“It’s something I look at very hard,” he said.

Farid Kahad: “Any attack against those provinces will henceforth be considered an attack against Russian territory”

The Professor and diplomat Farid Kahad “From the point of view of international law”, any action that decided to annex the 4 territories to Russia was considered illegal.

“Furthermore, holding a referendum under foreign military occupation in a context of war has no democratic legitimacy, not to mention that the results are completely unconvincing, such a proposal would not receive 96% or 97% of the vote,” he said. said.

however, Kahad It was intended that any attack on those territories would be considered an attack Russia and ultimately resorted to nuclear action.

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“From the point of view of Russian law, what Putin Any attack on those provinces would now be considered an attack on Russian territory. Also, while atomic theory Russian Putin, who has said he will only use nuclear weapons if the existence of his state is threatened, has redefined that there is no attempt to violate territorial integrity. Russian We can get a nuclear response,” he explained.

However, nuclear threats are a “, he said.Dim“It seeks to threaten internationally because “it affects the population of the Russian zone.” In this sense, he considered that Russian citizens, with the progress of the war, have found new reasons to oppose military operations. Ukraine.

“There are people who are not protesting against the war, but are protesting against the mobilization of 300,000 troops. At the moment, the attack on Ukraine is overwhelming,” he said.

What can the international community do?

Kahad It was held that there was no sanction against Russia Either the EU or the US will seek peace “immediately”. Ukraine.

“But there are measures like putting limits on the price paid for Russian oil imports. Whether that will work or not is debatable. There are Russian exports that are not allowed, like food, gas, oil. Sanctions can be imposed. Against those exports, in the case of oil and gas, Europe has not banned these imports because Still largely dependent on them.

Ramiro Escobar: “These are dictatorships, tyrannies, referendums without opposition”

The International journalist and analyst Ramiro Escobar Criticized the outcome of the referendums in 4 Ukrainian regions, not only because of the way they were conducted, but also because of their outcome.

“In Donetsk province, it won with 99% support Russia. They are dictatorships, tyrannies, unopposed referendums. This type of result is practically impossible, other places have 93%,” he said.

In that sense, Escobar The Russian government was deemed to have made “two moves” in the face of a “difficult” situation because, it said, it would have expected “easy” military action. Ukraine.

“One, call the reservists, estimated to be about 600,000 to increase the number of troops on the battlefield; at the same time, call a referendum soon, so that, with both things, they try to close their work. Influence and domain over Luhansk and Donetsk, already 5 years pro-Russian. and areas of conflict between Ukrainians,” he said.

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Likewise, he said the referendum was “quickly set up with military pressure” and that he was “obviously” going to win.

“There is no way I will lose them, there is more than one version of the people saying that they were forced to vote and threatened if they didn’t go (…) This movement is for the purpose of consolidating power and, at the same time, threatening power that I have more soldiers,” he noted.

Secondly. Escobar He argued that annexation was unsustainable as most of the world considered it illegal.

“It will be difficult to maintain over time. Suddenly it can be maintained by force (…), but if it does not have the consent of the majority of the world community, as it happens, it can be a symbol. The ritual gesture, announcing the annexation of those territories, but from the point of view of international law, it will not be accepted,” He said.

What can the international community do?

Escobar through this new movement, Putin It continues to damage its international image and this lack of legitimacy is very difficult to overcome politically.

“Another problem is that it could escalate the war. Attack on the Nord Stream pipeline It could also be sabotage against gas pipelines (…) If it happens beyond that, the prognosis is complicated. Putin cannot overcome such a moment politically. On the logic that some form of negotiation at some point would end the war, it would be very difficult to negotiate because Ukrainians would not want to negotiate with someone who would de facto occupy two parts of their territory. “, held.

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