How did Venezuela emerge from high inflation and what does it mean for the country’s economy to suffer | The world

Four years and after two currency conversions, Venezuela This comes out of the hyperinflationary cycle that has existed since 2017.

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The monthly price variance in December was 7.6%.

This means that Venezuela has fulfilled exactly that Twelve months with variation of less than 50%, Considered by experts to be the gateway to high inflation.

Not only that, but Venezuela has already had single-digit inflation variance for four consecutive months. In September 2021 inflation of 7.1% and 6.8% in October, in November, 8.4% and 7.6% inflation in December was the most.

This is not surprising to many. அதே தேசியத் தலைவர் நிக்கோலஸ் மதுரோ, டெலிசூர் சேனலுக்கு அளித்த பேட்டியில் வெனிசுலா அதிக பணவீக்க சுழற்சியை மூடிவிட்டதாக நாட்களுக்கு முன்பு கூறியிருந்தார்.

“As a result of inflation management between September, October, November and December, there is a one-digit downward trend and I can politically declare that Venezuela is coming out of high inflation,” the president said.

But what does this mean? What impact does this have on the Venezuelan economy, which has to face one of the longest hyperfusionary processes in modern history?

Good and “not so good” message

For Metropolitan University professor and economist Luis aliveros largely the result of the inflation cycle, “excellent news” marks.

This cycle began In the last quarter of 2017 When monthly inflation of 56.7% was recorded, it exceeded the limit. That year, according to the BCV, annual inflation was 862.6%.

But that is only a prelude to what is to come. 2018, the year of high inflation, closed at 130.060%; And the economy between 2013, when oil prices fell and in 2018 contracted by 47.6%.

Prices have been rising since the first quarter of 2019, recording variations above the 50% limit only at certain times.

Venezuela last recorded a monthly variation of over 50% in December 2020, When prices increased by 77.5%. From January 2021 to date, Venezuela has not recorded monthly variations above 50 points.

However, this is not good news for the oil nation.

Even without the prefix “hyper” already, it belongs to Venezuela. Inflation is still high in the world today. According to the same BCV, 2021 ended with annual inflation of 686.4%.

“In the context of Venezuela the variance may be as low as 7% on average per month,” Oliveros emphasizes. “But it’s still very high for the region and the world’s average annual inflation.”

For example, Colombia’s annual inflation for 2021 was 5.62% and December inflation was 0.73%, according to the National Statistics Office (DANE).

Venezuela’s high inflation This is one of the longest in modern history, Surpassed only by Nicaragua (1986-1991) and Greece (1941-1945).

BCV reports that Venezuela ended with 2020 inflation of 2,968.8%.

Why is this happening?

Good and “not so good” message

For Metropolitan University professor and economist Luis aliveros largely the result of the inflation cycle, “excellent news” marks.

For four years, with variations in Venezuela “is 100% and more. It (inflation) was very high,” he told BBC Mundo.

This cycle began In the last quarter of 2017 When monthly inflation of 56.7% was recorded, it exceeded the limit. That year, according to the BCV, annual inflation was 862.6%.

But that is only a prelude to what is to come. 2018, the year of high inflation, closed at 130.060%; And the economy between 2013, when oil prices fell and in 2018 contracted by 47.6%.

Prices have been rising since the first quarter of 2019, recording variations above the 50% limit only at certain times.

Venezuela last recorded a monthly variation of over 50% in December 2020, When prices increased by 77.5%. From January 2021 to date, Venezuela has not recorded monthly variations above 50 points.

However, this is not good news for the oil nation.

Even without the prefix “hyper” already, it belongs to Venezuela. Inflation is still high in the world today. According to the same BCV, 2021 ended with annual inflation of 686.4%.

“In the context of Venezuela the variance may be as low as 7% on average per month,” Oliveros emphasizes. “But it is still higher than the average annual inflation in the region and in the world.”

For example, Colombia’s annual inflation for 2021 was 5.62% and December inflation was 0.73%, according to the National Statistics Office (DANE).

Venezuela’s high inflation This is one of the longest in modern history, Surpassed only by Nicaragua (1986-1991) and Greece (1941-1945).

BCV reports that Venezuela ended with 2020 inflation of 2,968.8%.

Why is this happening?

This process from high inflation to “extreme inflation” is not possible without it “Cocktail” of results provided by the government As the director of Ecoanalitica Asdrúbal Oliveros (who has no relationship with them) explained, is central.

The fall in oil prices in 2013, the contraction of the economy and sanctions imposed by the United States, Canada and the European Union, led the Maduro administration to use significant cuts in government spending, restrictions on bank credit and lower spending on bolivars. To maintain exchange rate stability.

Fiscal deficit is the balance of a state’s revenue minus its expenses. If the result is positive, the state has a financial surplus. But having a negative result like what happens in Venezuela means you are spending more than you earn.

By 2017, the general deficit exceeded 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest in Latin America. But an independent study by Andres Bello Catholic University found that in 2020 it was 7.9%.

Other measures were used Stop the petrol subsidy (Cheapest in the world for many years, cheaper than a bottle of mineral water) We need to loosen price controls and open up the foreign exchange market, Which has been under tight state control for more than 16 years. This allowed for more imports and a smaller revival of the private sector.

What about dollarization?

But there is an important point in everything, that is Dollarization. For years, the Venezuelan people have been using the dollar as currency for most transactions.

It represents an oxygen balloon for many Venezuelans whose incomes have plummeted since 2008 (two since the beginning of high inflation), with a total of three currency reversals and a devaluation of the base Bolivar. 14 zeros.

From Caracas, people promise that the dollar is here to stay. If the picture of Venezuela in 2017 is empty supermarkets, 2021 dollars. And experts, as consulted by BBC Mundo, point out that this dynamic will continue in 2022.

Ecoanalitica reports that still lifes, supermarkets and clothing stores now mark their prices in foreign currency and that the dollar is used for almost two-thirds of all transactions.

This dollarization has many properties: First it is In practice This was not part of a formal government strategy, but was considered by the Venezuelan people.

Second, no matter how much it devalues, it is not replaced by the dollar instead of the bolivar. That’s why researchers say so The dollarization area is, Because the government holds the national currency, for example, pay for public servants or fees for services.

“We have two Venezuelans,” promises Ostrubal Oliveros. On the one hand, the social class that accepted the dollar as the most frequently used currency; And on the other hand Dollars are hard to access and a class that needs to be modified to get them anyway, To explain.

“So you have to see what the real impact of inflation is,” he continues. “No matter how low you are, it’s very important to add that the cost of living in dollars is an increase (rather than a bolivar).”

“In fact, dollarization has brought about inequality,” says Louis Oliveros. “There are losers in this story who can’t access dollars right now.”

What is the position of the government and what challenges does it face?

“I focus on the monetary sector, protecting Bolivar, wages, and income through the national card. Evaluate how this process, called dollarization, will help the country’s forces recover and use it. It’s an exhaust valve. Thank God it is.”

Maduro said this phrase in front of TV cameras on November 17, 2019.

Since then, the dollar has been circulating more and more freely. But that does not mean that the government accepts the full dollarization of the economy.

Vice President Delzi Rodriguez said last December that accepting the dollar as a currency was a “terrible mistake” for Venezuela. “2022 will be the year of Bolivar’s firm recovery as a national currency,” he added.

But Venezuela continues to face significant challenges, says Luis Oliveros. Not only will inflation continue to fall, but it will also correct the high rate of inflation.

“The government has focused more on the exchange rate and in the last four months it has not moved in practice,” he says. “But if the exchange rate does not move, there is still inflation, and then this overestimation will appear.

At higher valuations imports will be cheaper than production. It is translated as stimulating the internal economy.

“The great task of economic development. Venezuela had seven years of economic decline. But if we continue to have the highest estimate, inflation will continue,” concludes Lewis aliveros.

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